According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 6.58% as of Wednesday, down from 6.63% the week prior. The 15-year fixed rate also edged lower to 5.71%, from 5.75% a week earlier.
The move downward comes on the heels of inflation data that reinforced Wall Street’s belief the Fed will lower its benchmark interest rate in September. Although the Fed does not directly set mortgage rates, these rates closely track market expectations for monetary policy.
For most of 2025, the 30-year fixed rate held in a narrow range between 6.6% and 6.8%. That changed in early August, when weaker-than-expected hiring data revealed slowing job growth. Combined with July inflation readings that were sticky but still came in below economists’ forecasts, the shift in economic sentiment has been notable. Traders now place a 91% probability on a 25-basis-point cut at the Fed’s September 17 meeting.
According to Chen Zhao, Head of Economics Research at Redfin, much of the anticipated policy change has already been factored into today’s rates.
“The likelihood of a September rate cut is largely priced in,” Zhao explained. “As a result, mortgage rates may not fall significantly further when the Fed acts. The window to secure a mortgage rate in the mid-6% range could be brief, especially with heightened volatility expected as new data is released.”
Despite the rate relief, buyer demand has only seen a modest uptick. Mortgage Bankers Association data shows purchase applications rising just 1% week over week. The refinancing market, however, responded more strongly—posting a 23% jump in applications over the same period.
This divergence underscores the current dynamic: while lower rates offer welcome relief, housing affordability challenges and broader economic uncertainty continue to keep many buyers on the sidelines.
Analysts caution that the path forward remains data-driven, with upcoming reports on employment, inflation, and consumer sentiment likely to influence rate movements in the weeks ahead. As the September Fed meeting approaches, borrowers may face increased rate volatility—making timing and preparation key for those considering locking in a loan.